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08/29/2009 - Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch made a late-race pass on Todd Bodine for the lead and then held off Bodine on a restart with seven laps to go to win Friday's inaugural EnjoyIllinois.com 225 Camping World Truck Series race at Chicagoland Speedway.
Busch recorded his fourth victory of the season and the 13th of his Truck Series career. He won last week's race at Bristol, snapping Ron Hornaday Jr.'s five-race winning streak.
"[Crew chief] Richie [Wauters] made a good pit call there in the beginning of the race to take tires when we did," said Busch, who led a race-high 79 laps. "Luckily, we had that long green-flag run, and we cased it. We made it look like we knew what we were doing, and that long run, it just hurt everybody else."
Busch and Wauters are now two-for-two in wins since the duo were reunited at the No.51 Billy Ballew Motorsports Toyota team prior to Bristol. Wauters guided Busch to three victories in the series in 2008. Doug George had served as his crew chief before moving over to Ballew's No.15 team.
"Kyle is a heck of a race car driver, and when he gets to the front, I don't think anyone is going to get around him unless he's a little bit worse," Wauters said.
Busch has now won three of the last four races in which he's competed, as he captured the victory in both the Truck and Sprint Cup events at Bristol. He will try to improve on that record Sunday when he runs in the Nationwide Series race at Montreal.
The 24-year-old driver has now recorded victories in all three of NASCAR's national touring series at five different tracks. Busch won the Nationwide and Sprint Cup races at Chicagoland last year.
Bodine settled for a second-place finish.
"On the second-to-last restart, I just got too good of a restart, and this place is so much like Daytona and Talladega where drafting is so important," said Bodine, who relinquished the lead to Busch with 19 laps remaining. "He got a good draft and passed me. I guess it's my fault."
Colin Braun finished third, followed by Rick Crawford and Johnny Sauter.
Dennis Setzer, Chad McCumbee, Aric Almirola, Timothy Peters and Terry Cook completed the top-10.
Hornaday had a disappointing night with an 11th-place finish, his worst result since the first weekend in June at Texas, where he placed 19th. Hornaday fell one lap behind but managed to get back on the lead lap during the seventh and final caution.
Matt Crafton, the pole sitter, finished a lap down in 14th.
Hornaday slightly increased his lead over Crafton to 220 points with nine races remaining in the season.
<< Red Sox squeak by Blue Jays in rain-soaked affair
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Ortiz scampered home with the go-ahead run
on a fielder's choice in the bottom of the eighth inning, and Jonathan
Papelbon survived a stressful ninth, as the Boston Red Sox defeated Toronto,
6-5, in
<< Howard homers twice as Phils take rainy game against Braves
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Howard had another awesome display of
power, clubbing a pair of homers, as the Philadelphia Phillies held off
Atlanta, 4-2, at a soggy Citizens Bank Park.
Howard, who had a solo homer in the
<< Stampeders use late TD to beat Argos
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henry Burris' eight-yard touchdown pass to
Jeremaine Copeland with just over a minute to play proved to be the
difference, as the Calgary Stampeders sent the Toronto Argonauts to their 10th
straigh
<< Fielder and Braun lead Brewers past Pirates
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer, and
Ryan Braun added a solo shot and scored twice, as the Milwaukee Brewers held
on for an 8-6 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a three-game
set at
Hernandez helps Mariners take out Royals >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Felix Hernandez got back to his winning ways
with seven solid innings, and the Seattle Mariners grabbed a 6-3 win against
the Kansas City Royals at Safeco Field.
Hernandez (13-5) got his first win afte
Lincecum dazzles for eight innings as Giants top Rockies >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum hurled eight shutout innings
of four-hit ball and outdueled Ubaldo Jimenez, as the Giants defeated the
Rockies, 2-0, in the opener of a pivotal three-game set with both divisional
and wil
Morales has two HR, six RBI in Angels' comeback win over A's >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kendry Morales collected a career-high five
hits, including two home runs, and knocked in six runs, as Los Angeles put up
a seven-spot in the seventh inning to rally past Oakland, 11-7, in the second
of four
Packers hold on for wild win over Cardinals >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 258 yards and three
touchdowns, and the Green Bay Packers held on for a 44-37 victory over the
Arizona Cardinals in preseason action.
Rodgers completed 14-of-19 passes and also
Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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