CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction

Football Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself.

A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given the club some rare wiggle room.

Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success, proceed with caution.

It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the same one as past editions.

New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one that comes from behind and wins close games.

With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.

For the Argos, it's better than going south.

In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the 27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:

Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards), who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.

Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second meeting of the two teams.

Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should improve to 3-1.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.

Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this roster gets, the less the regular season matters.

The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.

That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den, having gone winless at BC since 2001.

Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the top.

Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:

Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the league's stingiest defense.

Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for the Lions to wake him up.

Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home stand beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.

Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a competitive division.

Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.

After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with the confidence of a playoff team.

Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.

For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.

Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68 percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.

Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year, has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114 yards.

Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton. Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets tougher.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move further away from the pack.

Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the contending team that many predicted in the preseason.

After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad, Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.

Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.

Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers' offense this week.

Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win for Hamilton.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.