Kawakami effective in debut as Braves down Nats

Baseball Betting Lines

04/11/2009 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenshin Kawakami tossed six solid innings in his major league debut, as the Atlanta Braves downed Washington, 5-3, to keep the Nationals winless so far this season.

Kawakami (1-0), the first Japanese-born player in Braves history, allowed three runs on four hits and four walks. The 33-year-old also struck out eight in picking up the win.

Kawakami's effort on the mound was backed by Kelly Johnson, who went 3-for-4 with a double, home run and three runs batted in. Jordan Schafer had three hits, including two doubles, for the Braves, who moved to 4-1 this season and have already won their first two series.

Atlanta took two of three games from Philadelphia to begin the 2009 campaign and have now won the first two of this three-game set against the Nationals.

John Lannan (0-2) took the loss after allowing four runs on nine hits and three walks in six innings of work. Lannan also struck out three in the loss, Washington's fifth in a row to open the year. Washington is one of two teams without a win this season, the other being Cleveland, which lost to Toronto earlier Saturday to also fall to 0-5.

Ryan Zimmerman powered Washington's offense with a two-run homer, his first of the season, also drawing a walk in the loss.

Atlanta won only after erasing the 3-0 lead Washington had built up over the first three innings. The Braves got one run in the home third when Johnson smacked a leadoff homer to right field and added three more in the fourth.

With a runner on first, Schafer doubled to put both runners in scoring position. Kawakami grounded out, but Johnson followed with a two-run double to center, tying the game.

Atlanta's rally continued when Yunel Escobar reached on an infield single, leaving runners on the corners. Chipper Jones then lined a single to left to bring home Johnson, giving the Braves a 4-3 lead.

Kawakami settled down after allowing his three runs and, after his six innings, handed the ball off to Peter Moylan, who struck out the side in the seventh.

Rafael Soriano took over on the mound in the top of the eighth for the Braves and held Washington scoreless, despite allowing a leadoff double to Cristian Guzman.

Escobar's RBI single in the bottom half of the eighth provided an extra run for Atlanta, and Mike Gonzalez tossed a perfect ninth to notch his first save of the season.

The Nationals got on the scoreboard in the first, when Nick Johnson singled in a run. Zimmerman's opposite field two-run shot in the third made it a 3-0 Washington lead.

Game Notes

Kawakami spent last season with the Chunichi Dragons, going 9-5 with a 2.30 earned run average in 20 games (16 starts). However, he missed most of September with a strained back. He won 112 games in 11 seasons in Japan, earned MVP honors, as well as the Sawamura Award -- Japan's equivalent to the Cy Young -- in 2004 after going 17-7 with a 3.32 ERA...Lannan entered the game with a 2-0 record at Turner Field and a 0.69 ERA (one run in 13 innings)...The Braves left 10 runners on base, while the Nats stranded five.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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