Pirates, Brewers renew rivalry in Steel City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off perhaps their most complete victory of the season. They'll need that momentum given their struggles versus the Milwaukee Brewers this season.

The Pirates will try to snap a four-game skid to the Brewers and beat the club for just the fourth time in 12 meetings this season in the opener of a four- game series tonight at PNC Park.

Milwaukee's season looked to be in good shape given how it performed versus Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Brewers won their first four games versus the Pirates -- all in April -- by a 53-4 margin before losing three in a row to the Buccos. However, the Brewers have countered with another four-game win streak over Pittsburgh, sweeping a three-game set in Milwaukee from July 9-11 in the most recent meeting.

The Pirates, who have lost four of five at home to the Brew Crew this season, seem to be putting things together though after a seven-game overall slide. They outscored the Astros, 21-6, in taking the final two contests of a three- game weekend series, winning Sunday's finale 9-0 behind a season-high 19 hits and a three-hit shutout by starter Paul Maholm.

Maholm did not permit a runner past first base, allowing just three singles while notching the second shutout of his career.

"Everything was good. I threw one slider all day," commented Maholm about his outing during which he retired the side in order five times. "I mixed speeds with the curveball and the sinker. I threw a few changeups. They were aggressive, so I kept the ball down and let them beat it into the ground."

Ronny Cedeno had four hits, including three doubles, and scored twice, Ryan Doumit had a trio of hits and Garrett Jones hit a two-run homer, the Pirates' first with a man on base since June 8 that ended a streak of 1,097 straight at-bats. That was the longest such run since the Astros in 1984.

The Pirates won for the seventh time in their last nine home games, but did see center fielder Andrew McCutchen suffer a sprained right shoulder after making a diving catch in the eighth inning that has him day-to-day.

Right-hander Jeff Karstens will be looking tonight to avenge a loss to the Brewers in his last outing, a July 10 loss in which he gave up four runs on five hits and a career-high six walks. He also fanned five, but gave up back- to-back homers to Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the five-inning start.

The 27-year-old fell to 2-4 with a 4.87 earned run average on the season and 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA in eight career games versus Milwaukee, five of those starts.

Braun and Fielder both contributed at the plate on Sunday versus Atlanta, but Milwaukee still dropped an 11-6 decision. Fielder hit his 22nd homer of the season -- a solo blast -- while Braun had three hits and drove in a run.

Rickie Weeks added a pair of home runs, giving him a career-high 17 on the season which is also a Brewers single-season record by a second baseman. However, starter Manny Parra allowed 10 runs -- five in the third inning -- over 5 1/3 frames to suffer the loss.

Milwaukee had won five of six coming in.

"We didn't get the job done but I thought we played good baseball. Sometimes it goes that way, but we have something to build off of. We got another great team over there and we split [the four-game series] with them," Weeks said.

With Doug Davis on the disabled list due to left elbow tendinitis, 31-year-old Chris Capuano will get another chance to end his franchise-record 13-decision losing streak that dates back to the 2007 season.

Capuano pitched for the first time since that season on June 3 after returning from dual Tommy John surgeries and the left-hander made the start versus the Marlins. However, he took the loss after giving up three runs over 3 2/3 innings and has since made seven relief outings without a decision.

Capuano, who hasn't won since May 7, 2007, is pitching to a 4.35 ERA this year and recorded two outs while working around a hit versus the Pirates on July 9. In 12 career meetings versus the club, including 11 starts, he is 2-6 with a 6.34 ERA.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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