Vikings-Saints: Great way to get going

Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 -

Maybe this time Brett Favre won't get picked off with victory in his grasp.

In as juicy a season opener as the NFL could provide, Favre marches the Minnesota Vikings into New Orleans on Thursday night for a reprise of January's NFC championship game.

The Saints and their long trod-upon fans get the opportunity to celebrate the franchise's first Super Bowl title, then the New Orleans defense tries to batter Favre the way it did in the 31-28 overtime win that sent the former Aints to the Super Bowl.

Favre sort of retired in the offseason before having left ankle surgery in May, then balked again about returning to Minnesota when the recovery was slower than he wanted.

But retirements never really last with the 40-year-old quarterback, and he's back behind center, making the Vikings one of the conference favorites.

The Saints are 4 1/2-point choices in this one. It should be a lights-out shootout if Favre still has the touch and Minnesota can protect him. The Saints don't have any such questions about their offense, led by Drew Brees throwing to a deep assortment of wide receivers, tight ends and running backs.

This could be the most emotional game in the Louisiana Superdome since the Saints returned a year after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. Yes, even more emotional than the game Favre gave away 7 1/2 months ago.

The result?

SAINTS 35-28

Miami (minus 2) at Buffalo

Beware the road favorite early in the season? Not in this matchup, where Miami going to Orchard Park late in the season would be an equalizer, but not in September.

BEST BET: Dolphins 21, Bills 10

Baltimore (plus 3) at New York Jets (Monday night)

The Jets talk about Super Bowls. The Ravens play like a team headed to a Super Bowl.

UPSET SPECIAL: RAVENS, 17-13

Dallas (minus 3) at Washington

Is Donovan McNabb still haunted by visions of the Dallas defense after moving from Philly to DC? His last two games with the Eagles were lopsided losses to the Cowboys. This should be closer.

COWBOYS, 20-16

Cincinnati (plus 6) at New England

Fans of playmaking wideouts have to love a matchup of T.O. and Ochocinco against Randy Moss and a stunningly fit Wes Welker coming off major knee surgery.

PATRIOTS, 31-28

Indianapolis (minus 3) at Houston

Concerns about the offensive line and the defense as a whole in Indy are offset by the Colts' dominance of this rivalry. Peyton Manning heads for a fifth MVP trophy.

COLTS 30-20

Green Bay (pick) at Philadelphia

Are these teams headed in opposite directions? Green Bay has a chance to be special this year, while the Eagles are in something of a transition.

PACKERS 21-14

Atlanta (pick) at Pittsburgh

First match of the critical four-game stretch for the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger. Can the Steelers at least go 2-2 in that span? Tough way to start.

FALCONS, 14-10

San Francisco (minus 1) at Seattle

Under normal circumstances, Pete Carroll gets his players all fired up. In his return as an NFL head coach, the Seahawks could take off over Puget Sound by themselves.

SEAHAWKS, 21-20

San Diego (minus 5 1/2) at Kansas City (Monday night)

Chargers could be vulnerable - in another division. But this won't be a rout.

CHARGERS 22-17

Carolina (plus 7) at New York Giants

Panthers tend to play very well in Meadowlands against Giants, but Big Blue is officially opening Big Gray - the New Meadowlands Stadium (until a sponsor claims naming rights to the $1.6 billion venue).

GIANTS, 17-16

Detroit (plus 7) at Chicago

So tempting to go with Lions here against a troubled Bears squad. Detroit's last road win was in October 2007 - at Soldier Field.

LIONS, 20-7

Cleveland (plus 1) at Tampa Bay

Not so tempting with the Browns in matchup of coaches on the hot seat.

BUCCANEERS, 10-6

Denver (plus 1 1/2) at Jacksonville

How much action does Tim Tebow get in his hometown in his NFL debut? Not enough to make a difference.

JAGUARS, 13-10

Oakland (plus 7) at Tennessee

Titans believe they are ready to make noise again after a streaky 2009. Better start with a W here.

TITANS, 23-17

Arizona (minus 3 1/2) at St. Louis

Cardinals suddenly seem like Team Turmoil. They're still far too good for Rams.

CARDINALS, 20-3Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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