Dodgers hope to get lift from Lilly versus Padres

Baseball Betting Lines

08/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- With their backs squarely against the wall, the Los Angeles Dodgers hope to receive an immediate boost from one of their new acquisitions in tonight's showdown with the visiting San Diego Padres.

The two-time defending National League West champion Dodgers are in serious danger of falling out of the playoff race due to the team's poor play since the All-Star break. Los Angeles is a brutal 5-13 thus far in the second half and was handed a sixth consecutive loss in Monday's opener of this four-game series with the division-leading Padres.

The slide has dropped the Dodgers a full seven games behind the rival San Francisco Giants for the lead in the NL Wild Card race and nine back of the first-place Padres in the West standings.

"We have to start doing things right," manager Joe Torre said after Monday's 10-5 loss to San Diego. "Our confidence level is not good right now. We got more hits [Monday], we just couldn't keep the other team from scoring."

Los Angeles, which had scored two runs or less in nine of its last 11 contests prior to last night's matchup, did register 14 hits in the opener, but stranded 12 baserunners and received a rough outing out of starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (8-10). The Japanese righty lasted only four innings and was tagged for five runs (four earned) and seven hits.

Chase Headley and Will Venable each belted three-run homers for San Diego, with Headley ending 4-for-5 with three runs scored and Venable knocking in four runs on the night. Miguel Tejada, brought in by the Padres just prior to Saturday's trade deadline, added a two-run single as part of a 2-for-5 performance.

Clayton Richard (9-5) benefited from San Diego's offensive barrage to notch his ninth win of the season, with the young lefty laboring through 5 1/3 innings and throwing 105 pitches. He was reached for four runs on 10 hits before exiting.

"I thought I had a pretty good outing, but the numbers may not show it," Richard said afterward. "Every time we play a division rival, we try to take care of business."

Monday's win put the Padres two games ahead of idle San Francisco in the battle for first place in the NL West.

Matt Kemp excelled for Los Angeles in a losing cause, with the standout outfielder going 5-for-5 and driving in three runs while finishing a triple short of the cycle.

The desperate Dodgers obtained four veteran players in the days leading up to the trade deadline, including starting pitcher Ted Lilly in a deal with the Chicago Cubs. The 34-year-old will make his first start since the swap tonight and will be out to continue his career success when facing the Padres.

Lilly owns a 5-2 record with a 3.18 earned run average in nine career appearances (eight starts) against San Diego. He hasn't fared well pitching at Dodger Stadium in the past, though, having registered an 0-2 mark and a subpar 9.20 ERA over four games (three starts) in his new home park.

The experienced lefty went just 3-8 for the non-contending Cubs prior to the trade, but produced a respectable 3.69 ERA over the course of his 18 starts. In his final game with Chicago, Lilly struck out eight over 5 2/3 shutout innings in a no-decision at Houston on July 27, six days after tossing 7 1/3 frames of one-run ball in another non-verdict against the Astros.

Lilly will have to deal with one of the NL's hottest hitters right now in Yorvit Torrealba. The San Diego catcher went 3-for-5 in Monday's win and is batting a scorching .473 (26-for-55) over the course of his tear, the longest by a Padres player since Adrian Gonzalez hit in 16 in a row during 2006.

The struggling Dodgers don't figure to have an easy time at the plate, with San Diego sending the formidable Mat Latos to the mound this evening. The emerging young ace has amassed a stellar 11-4 record and a 2.45 ERA for the year and enters tonight's clash having won six consecutive decisions. Over an eight-start unbeaten streak dating back to June 10, the right-hander has yielded two runs or less on all of those occasions.

Latos didn't come up with a win his last time out, but certainly kept the Padres in the game during a home meeting with the Dodgers on Thursday. He held Los Angeles to two runs (one earned) and a mere two hits while striking out seven over five innings.

The 22-year-old wasn't as sharp in an appearance at Dodger Stadium last September, with Latos issuing five walks and surrendering four runs (two earned) before exiting after three innings of a 7-4 loss.

San Diego took two of three games from Los Angeles when the teams met at Petco Park last week, but the Dodgers have won five of the nine matchups between the divisional foes so far this year. The clubs split a two-game set at Dodger Stadium from May 19-20.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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