March Madness: NBA style

Basketball Betting Lines

03/17/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When watching the NCAA Tournament, I'm not holding my breath waiting for Cinderella to appear like most of America.

Nope, I'm all about the next level and trying to project which players have the athletic skills and basketball smarts to flourish in the NBA, and which ones are the frauds, manufactured in the Dick Vitale/Jay Bilas ESPN-generated hype-machine (think J.J. Redick).

If you are looking for talent, it's usually a good idea to find John Calipari, the coach that mentored both Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans at Memphis for a season before they burst onto the NBA scene.

Calipari may have fled Beale Street for the blue grass of Kentucky but he remains the best recruiter in all of college basketball, and his new one-year wonder is point guard John Wall, who figures to be the No. 1 overall selection in June's draft.

The 6-foot-4 Wall has the size and physical skills to become an elite player early in his NBA career. His speed and athleticism are strikingly similar to Rose, and few guards can finish above the rim like Wall. One scout told me Wall has an Allen Iverson-like extra gear, with five more inches of height.

Kentucky power forward Patrick Patterson, a junior, may also be a lottery pick. At 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds, Patterson already possesses an NBA-body and has the demeanor you want in a post player, a rare thing in today's college game. Patterson actually enjoys contact and seeks to bang inside, like a far more skilled Charles Oakley.

Georgia Tech doesn't bring the same cachet to the dance as UK but they sure bring talent and like the Wildcats figure to have two NBA Lottery players in forwards Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal.

Favors, a freshman, is a sure-fire top five pick and will remind you a lot of Al Horford. Like the Atlanta big man, Favors is only 6-foot-9 but is an explosive leaper with that rare combination of power and quickness that can give even the best fits on a daily basis. Favors also possesses a 7-footer's wingspan, and figures to turn into a top-tier shot-blocker early in his NBA career. Like most young players, Favors lacks a go-to move on the blocks and relies too much on his athleticism, but that's the nature of the beast these days.

Lawal is a junior with a relentless work ethic. He also has the 7-foot wingspan along with an NBA-body and solid athletic skills, but Lawal will beat you with conditioning. Like a big-time NFL defensive end, the Georgia native has a non-stop motor and runs the floor extremely hard on a consistent basis.

Kansas is a No. 1 seed for a reason and could have three first round selections is this year's draft. Freshman shooting guard Xavier Henry has the biggest upside and could be gone in the top 10. At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, unlike most freshmen, Henry is physically ready. He's a naturally gifted scorer that gets his shot effortlessly but lacks the foot speed to be a true superstar.

Junior Cole Aldrich is the premiere center in the country and is as fundamentally sound a player as you will find in college. He may not have the athletic skills that wow NBA scouts but he's improved every year and could certainly be a late lottery pick.

Meanwhile, senior point guard Sherron Collins figures to be a late first-round selection. Collins is only 5-foot-11 and thinks shot first, but as a 15- or 20- minutes-a-night backup, he has value. In fact, if Collins proves he can keep people in front of him defensively, he could be a nice little role player on a championship-level club.

Right behind Wall in most mock drafts is Ohio State superstar Evan Turner, a 6-foot-7 combo guard that is silky smooth with a great feel for the game. Offensively, Turner reminds me a lot of Portland Trail Blazers star Brandon Roy. He's not the freakish athlete that Wall is, but has the length to give people fits on the wing.

Syracuse junior forward Wesley Johnson rounds out the top three as far as NBA projections go. The prototypical athletic small forward, Johnson actually has a monster mid-range game, something that is usually lost in the three-point- driven college game.

If you are looking for role players that could be steals in the second round, I like Washington forward Quincy Pondexter, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez and Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody.

Pondexter is slight but he seems to understand the game and has a feel for his own strength and weaknesses, an underrated trait. Few players have the basketball IQ to stay away from things that hurt them.

At 6-foot-6, you have to like Vasquez's size and he plays with great intensity. Of course, that same intensity means Vasquez will play out of control at times, and his decision making suffers. If a coach can harness that, he might have something in the Maryland senior.

Harangody is 6-foot-7, 245-pound plodding power forward. He lacks athleticism, explosiveness and height but dominated the toughest conference in all of college basketball for three years. In short, Harangody knows how to play the game, and there will always be room for a guy like that.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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